Times, They Are A Changin'

Beached Baby Whale? Our imagination on what "can be" holds the key to the future. (click to enlarge)
Olympus E-M5, Lumix 100-300mm f/4.5-5/6 lens @ 162mm; 1/1250th sec. @ f/6.3; ISO 200

If you are currently considering buying a new digital camera body and your plan is buying a current, cutting edge model as opposed to saving money by buying an "almost end of its life cycle" model, you may want to wait for just a few months.  I predict this may be a pivotable year in the digital photographic world.  The time frame for most of the big  camera announcements is August/September, just before or at Photokina 2018 in Germany.

I enjoy everything photographic.  Not only do I enjoy making images but I enjoy my gear and following the photo industry as well.  As far as the photo industry is concerned, I predict this will be a pivotable, if not a very interesting year for us photographers.  Why pivotable?  Canon and Nikon are both working feverishly on high-end mirrorless cameras and I believe both companies will soon shift much or their research and development into the mirrorless world.  

The days of DSLR's dominance is coming to an end. All the industry trends point toward mirrorless cameras as the future.  DSLRs will be around for a long time to come, just as film is still around, but your future DSLR choices, cutting edge feature development and major improvements will be slowly relegated to second behind the same types of development of mirrorless camera bodies.  

Fujifilm, Olympus, Panasonic and especially Sony has forced this change with their successful development, advancements and bullish sales of mirrorless cameras.  They have started this trend which will now require Canon and Nikon to follow.  It is certainly not the end of the line for DSLRs—yet—but as with film they will become a niche in the digital photographic world over the next 10 years.  The handwriting seems to be on the wall for a change in our photographic world.  In my opinion, for the better.  There is so much more potential in mirrorless technology than pushing forward with basically the same designs that were used in the film world.

From my reading, I'm going to make some observations, not predictions, which may or may not eventually come true.  But its fun anyway.  So take this with a grain of salt.

1)  This will be a year in which the two 800 lb. gorillas of the industry, Canon and Nikon, will reveal serious mirrorless cameras.  Canon already has taken one step forward into the mirrorless world with the APS-C "M" line, the M6 being the latest.  I read where these cameras are selling pretty well in Japan and some other countries.  Nikon had the very rudimentary (but with extremely fast focusing capabilities) Nikon 1 cameras (denoting a 1" sensor), but this year they will reveal at least one, if not two very serious mirrorless cameras—APS-C and/or full frame.  

The sales trends for these two photo giants show that DSLRs will continue to fall out of favor and mirrorless will continue to gain fans and sales.  I believe both will have full frame professional level mirrorless cameras by the end of next year, if not this year.  I think I read that Nikon has sold about 100 million lenses over the years.  Canon even more.  Not all of these have survived or are still being used, but a very high percentage surely is.  The big question then for Nikon is "will they introduce a new lens mount (rumored to be a Z mount) or keep the current "F" mount?  If they introduce a new lens mount, will they also introduce an adapter so current Nikon lens users can still use their "F" mount lenses until a sufficient number of new lenses can be developed?   Or, do they just keep the old "F" mount and add a "snout" to the front of the camera body to maintain the current lens mount to sensor distance, thus allowing all of the those Nikkor lens to be continued to be used?  (Mirrorless technology allows the lens mount to sensor distance to be much closer than with a DSLR and the accompanying mirror box) The old "F" mount has limited Nikon in the past and has been in use since the 1950s?  It has served them very well for 75 years, but has it run its course?  If they create a new "Z" mount, they will find themselves in the same boat as Sony a few years ago with terrific cameras and no professional level lenses to go with it.  It has taken Sony several years to develop a bevy of excellent lenses and they still don't have a complete stable of professional grade and focal length glass.  Think long, fast telephoto lenses that pros need.

2)  Sony has taken the amateur and professional photo community by storm with their mirrorless A7 lines of cameras.  These new cameras pop out like buns in an oven with a new one being introduced, seemingly, every 6 months or so.  They hold the enviable position of being the "cutting edge" manufacturer for full frame mirrorless and a lot of photographers have switched from Canon and Nikon to Sony.  That trend will continue unless Canon and Nikon come to the table ready for a market fight.  Sony's current lineup consists of the A9, A7RIII, A7III and A7SII.  The A7SIII should be coming soon.  But what is in store for the near future from Sony?

I think Sony has some things really special up their collective sleeves as a way of counteracting anything Canon and Nikon will introduce at Photokina in September.  They seem to be determined to grab more and more market share (they have stated in the past that their goal is to become #1) so it isn't hard to figure that, with their cutting edge technology packed into their current cameras, something new and even better is just around the corner.  They won't cede anything to Canon or Nikon and will do whatever they feel is necessary to keep grabbing market share.  Look for their next generation of cameras to have more focus points, focus faster, have less noise at higher ISOs, more dynamic range, bigger buffer, shoot more frames per second and add a couple of features we haven't even thought about.  They may not introduce something at Photokina, but it won't be long afterward, maybe 1st quarter of next year.  Wait for it.  It is coming and I think we all will be blown away as they continue to try to top the other guys.

The Achilles Heel for Sony in the past was a wide variety of lenses.  They now have pretty much solved that themselves and with independent manufacturers.  With the new 400mm f/2.8 lens they will introduce shortly, they give pros a nice fast, long lens.  More will come.  Sigma, Tokina, Tamron and Zeiss are now making very high quality lenses for Sony E mount.  It just gets better and better for Sony as everyone but Canon and Nikon seems to had seen this coming.

3)  Fujifilm just introduced the X-H1.  Great camera with in-body-image-stabilization but has the same 24mp X-Trans III sensor.  No improvement in image quality from what I read.  My interest would be for my next camera to have better image quality than does my X-T2.  Nonetheless, they added some features and enhanced focusing capabilities in this body.  As with their usual custom, many of the improvements will be given to us older camera body users in the way of a firmware update.  That is a wonderful philosophy for Fujifilm's customers.

However, Fujifilm will introduce a new X-T3 at Photokina.  It will have a new sensor, greater than 24mp but less than 30mp, if rumors prove correct (and there is a better than even chance they do).  The interesting question is if Fujifilm will continue with the X-Trans line of sensors or go with the more traditional Bayer Array sensor in future flagship bodies?  I ask that as they will introduce a new camera this week, the X-T100, with a 24mp Bayer Array sensor instead of the X-Trans III sensor.  Since the sensor in the X-T3 will be all new, will it be a Bayer as well?  If so, that would remove the last objection some photographers have about buying into the unique X-Trans sensor with its past reputation for wormy artifacts and mushy green foliage.  Even if those two phenomena are pretty much a dead issue with the improvements in Lightroom and the other available RAW converters, it still keeps some potential buyers away.  If Fujifilm goes to a Bayer sensor, that removes that barrier to entry and Fujifilm will surely pick up new customers.  The caveat is if Fujifilm, with a Bayer Array sensor, can maintain the lovely color renditions they have achieved and for which photographers buy the camera?  I'm betting they can if they decide to change directions.

Rumor also has it that the X-T3 will not have in-body-image-stabilization (IBIS).  Unfortunately, that will be a deal breaker for me and keeping my Fujifilm gear for the long term.  I won't buy another camera body without IBIS.  I find too many advantages to that feature.  But, whether the X-T3 has it or not, I think the X-T3 will have improved image processing which will produce a step up in image quality, greater dynamic range, less noise at higher ISOs, better, faster and more accurate tracking focus, a larger in-camera buffer, as well as adding a couple of new features.  Fujifilm would be smart to keep their current menu system and controls layout as those are two items universally praised by owners.  There was a lot of push back when Fujifilm eliminated the exposure compensation dial and included a top mounted LCD on the X-H1.

Fujifilm is also working on another medium format digital camera to complement their current and very popular GFX 50S.  The new model will be more like a rangefinder-style camera and is rumored to be less costly.  That combination of medium format quality and relatively low price along with the lens road map that Fujifilm has publicly shown, will push some full frame pros and enthusiasts to this new camera.  If the price is right, this will be a huge change.  Just to add icing to the medium format cake, Fujifilm is rumored to be working on a successor to the GFX 50s with a 100mp sensor.  It just gets better and better.

4)  Olympus has publicly stated that their strategy is in high end cameras and pro lenses and that is where they will put their research and development efforts.  They are rumored to be revealing a new flagship camera either by the end of this year or early next year.  The last 2 flagship cameras were introduced in September (but 3 years apart, not 2), so there is a chance a new model will be introduced this year.  I would think they would want to at least reveal it this year so if any of their customers look like they are going to jump ship to another brand (Fujifilm or Sony) after some of these other new cameras have been announced, the new camera will keep them loyal to Olympus.  Also, I recently heard an Olympus Visionary photographer saying he recently talked to the Olympus folks and said they had several very interesting things coming, but he wasn't able to talk about it.  That certainly piques my interest.

The new camera body is supposed to perform better than the current flagship, the E-M1 Mark II.  I don't know exactly what that means, but Olympus is right there with Sony for developing cutting edge features and pushing the envelope on fast and accurate focus.  I suspect the new camera body will have a new sensor and image processor but probably not any more pixels.  I think they would only increase the number of pixels if their processing algorithms have improved dramatically.  As of now, at 20mp the micro 4/3 pixels (and pixel density) are about the smallest of any camera/format out there.  If it does happen, it will be a 24mp sensor, but that is really pushing it for micro 4/3.  High ISO performance with less noise, better focus tracking, more dynamic range, better color rendition and more unique features for the photographer will appear.

One thing that I would like Olympus to adopt is a 14-bit image file instead of the current 12-bit image file.  Fourteen bit is pretty much standard for professionally based or enthusiasts' cameras today.  That would give Olympus image files a bit better image quality to these smaller sensored cameras.  There would be 4 times the amount of shadow detail and about 1.3x more total image data in every file.  Please Olympus?

5)  Panasonic will continue to prioritize video over still photography.  No one beats Panasonic for video and their still-based cameras are nothing to complain about either.  But I don't think you can prioritize both well.  With the industry in the condition it is in today, funding for R and D is limited.  Choose one, stills or video, and be the best you can be.  Panasonic's reputation is more and more becoming centered on video and that is good for us as what they develop will bleed over into other manufacturers cameras.  Since they just introduced the G9 and the GH5s, I don't think they will have anything significantly new, with the exception of potentially a couple of new, professionally oriented lenses for later this year.  But I may be wrong and let's hope I am.  Since I am an Olympus user, what lenses Panasonic develops will work for me as well.

I haven't followed Leica much in the past few years.  They have some really nice cameras and extraordinary lenses, but both at extraordinary prices.  They will continue with their niche market and incrementally improve, as has been their practice.

I don't think Pentax will release anything major either.  They just introduced the upated K1 II, which is a great camera.  I hope they and Ricoh can hand on as they make excellent cameras and have a ver loyal following.

I think that is about it for my thoughts for later this year.  I may be right, partially correct or I may be full of hogwash.  In any case, it is fun to speculate and wonder what is in store for us in the near as well as distant future.  After all, it is all good for us as photographers.

NEW! As of January 1st, I've started an Instagram feed. I'll be posting photos daily so please follow @dennisamook. Thank you. 

Thanks for looking. Enjoy! 

Dennis A. Mook 

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