A Bit Of Speculation On The Upcoming Olympus E-M1 Mark III

Olympus E-M1 Mark II (press image).  I bet this camera's successor will look almost identical.

It seems that, from what I read on the rumor sites, Olympus is about to introduce its successor to its E-M1 Mark II camera.  I have owned and used this feature packed wonder of a camera since it was introduced just over three years ago.  With the exception of not having a "joystick" I have no complaints regarding it features, performance and image quality.  That being said, I am anxious to see what the next generation will bring.  

I think we are approaching a period of time when new cameras will be incremental improvements instead of being major leaps in features and image quality.  We have come a long, long way since 2000.  I think many of the general improvements in all digital cameras will follow what the mobile phone makers are doing—increasing computational photographic abilities.  I have mixed feelings about that.  I guess I'm a bit old school in wanting to do most of the work making images rather than just turning it over to a machine.  I don't get much satisfaction from just pushing the shutter button and allowing the "computer with a lens" to make all the decisions for me.  But that is me. YMMV.

According to m43rumors.com the E-M1 Mark III will be an announced on February 12, 2020.  So it is coming soon, if the rumor site can be believed (it has been pretty accurate in the past).

Here is what says the editor of the site says he knows for sure about the new camera.

same 20.4 mp sensor as in the current camera and E-M1X
joystick
new processor
same battery
can do handheld high resolution shots

In reality, that's not much but if the new model has the same sensor I will be surprised and disappointed.  Here are my thoughts about what Olympus "might" do with this new model and why.

First, the overall state of the interchangeable lens photographic industry is not good.  Sales keep dropping each year and will continue to do so, by all reports of the industry experts.

Second, micro4/3 sales are not doing as well as full frame or APS-C sensored cameras.  For micro4/3 as well as for Olympus (and Panasonic) to continue to not only compete but grow in the industry, they have to be innovators and leaders.  New innovations and leading the industry with capabilities and improvements may keep them in the ballgame.  As they have done in the past, Olympus must meet if not exceed what others are doing.  However, if they only mimic what others have already done, then they are five years behind everyone else.  That doesn't bode well for their future.

So, I find it incredulous to think that Olympus would put the same sensor in their brand new camera as has been out and on sale for at least 4 years (Olympus Pen-F introduced in February 2016).  This sensor, if it is the same as the one in the Panasonic GX-8 may be even older as that camera was released in July, 2015.  You know that at that time of a camera introduction the sensor was in existence for at least a year or more before that so the camera, image processor and features can be designed around the sensor.  This current sensor may be as old as 7 years.  How could Olympus possibly put that same sensor into their new camera, even with a new image processing engine?  I don't think they can and survive the competition.

My guess is that it is a new sensor, potentially a BSI 20.4mp one, and has the same pixel count.  Since it has the same pixel count it is being mistaken as the same old sensor.  After all, do we need more pixels than 20 in a sensor that small if you are trying to not only maintain but improve image quality?  That being said, I think the new sensor will have a lot more PDAF focusing sites embedded into it, a bit better dynamic range and a better digital noise profile.  Again, that is the trend in the industry.  Can you compete in the future with the limited number of PDAF sites in the current sensor?  

Focusing ability is not mentioned in the rumors but I bet Olympus has worked hard to improve focus, especially continuous and tracking focus.  Why do I think that?  Olympus has just spent a ton of money on what looks to be a terrific sports, bird and wildlife lens, the 150-400mm PRO lens (to be introduced later this year).  I suspect that research and development of that lens was very expensive and, if you think about it, the lens has a limited audience.  What wildlife, sports or bird photographer is going to buy it (and you know it will very, very expensive) with the current state of focusing ability in the current crop of cameras?  Not many.  That would result in a huge amount of money lost if the lens doesn't sell.  Olympus can't afford to lose any more money than they currently do.  Focus must be improved in this new generation camera.

Being that there has been great emphasis on face and eye detection focus in the internet world as well as by Sony, Nikon and others, I think Olympus has worked hard to improve theirs.  They have to keep up with the rest of the industry.  Couple that with the automobile, motorcycle, airplane and train focusing lock-on that is present in the E-M1X, and I believe those along with some others, such as some animal lock-on (which Sony already has), will also be in the new camera.

Absolutely Olympus will have a new image processing engine.  Everyone develops one with new generation camera introductions.  One of the reasons the E-M1X is so large is that it has two TruePic VIII image processors in it so it can perform all of those whiz bang functions.  The new image processor (TruePic IX) will be more powerful in and of itself to perform all of those functions and more on its own.  A second in-camera processor won't be necessary.

The E-M1 Mark II has an outdated electronic viewfinder (EVF).  It was really good for its time, but its time has passed with only 2.36mp of resolution.  Everyone making a flagship camera now is using at least a 3.69mp EVF and some are using EVFs with 5.76mp.  Olympus has to upgrade the EVF to a much better one.

Blackout—most advanced enthusiasts and professionals that want a mirrorless camera don't want to deal with EVF lag or image blackout.  Olympus must reduce lag by increasing the refresh rate and employ a function to improve or eliminate image blackout during high speed photography.  You can't adequately track a bird or fast moving subject if your EVF shows you where your subject was rather than where it is "right now."

In-body-image-stabilization (IBIS) will be incrementally improved.  Olympus has been the leader in this and will continue to improve it to stay ahead of the competition.

I can buy the same battery as power usage would be the same and that would curry favor with existing customers who already own several of these batteries.  I don't read anything about everyone complaining about battery life.  The user's seem to be either very quiet or satisfied.

I can buy the joystick as coming.  Personally, I won't buy another camera that does not have a joystick.  I find it that important to my shooting style.

A few other pet wants that I have include the ability to choose what items are in the Super Control Panel as well as select their positions, 14-bit files, UHS-II for both memory cards and a My Menu which could be set to be the default menu that pops up when pushing the menu button.  I don’t know if any of these items are in the works but I hope they are.

I think Olympus will add most if not all of the functions that are included in the E-M1X, such as the simulated ND filter and the hand held high resolution photography abilities.  The new image processor will allow that.  Also, it just makes sense as they have put most if not all of the E-M1 Mark II features into their new E-M5 Mark III. Features and technology are always pushed downward after a time.

The question becomes, "What else does Olympus have up their collective sleeves to not only keep market share but gain market share?"  That I can't speculate but I'm hoping they fully appreciate the position they are in and add improvements, abilities, features and capabilities to jump ahead of the competition, as they have in the past.  I think they have to in order to keep the company viable in the long run.  After all, I really love my Olympus gear and I would hate to think that the company won't survive and make cameras long into the future.

Just my $.02 worth.  We will see in a very short time.  Your thoughts?

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Thanks for looking. Enjoy! 

Dennis A. Mook 

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