Be Aware Of Confirmation Bias

The Sentinel (click to enlarge)
This Great Blue Heron was backlit by bright sun.  However, the Fuji X-Trans sensor was able to
record intricate detail and render it in a sharp manner.while keeping the background looking normal.
Fujifilm X-T1, 16-55mm f/2.8 lens @ 55mm; 1/1400th sec. @ f/5.6; ISO 200

Are you a loyalist to a particular camera manufacturer's brand (or car brand or computer brand, etc.)?  Do you ruthlessly defend your choices and disregard others who may choose another brand or makes statements contrary to your opinions?  Do you tend to believe statements that support your opinions and disregard or minimize those that don't?  Is your camera gear absolutely better than others?  Is your computer brand better than the competition?  Is you automobile brand the best and others are inferior?

If you can say yes to most or all of those statements, you may be subject to "confirmation bias." What is confirmation bias?

I read and hear it all the time on forums, in You Tube videos, in articles and when talking to others.

"Confirmation bias" is the psychological tendency to search for and interpret statements, facts, attributes, etc., that support your decision, beliefs, purchases (in the case of camera gear) while minimizing or disregarding facts or statements that go counter to your decision.  In other words, we tend to look for and believe those assertions that confirm to us that we made a smart and best decision in what we did or what we believe because it supports our decision subsequently making us feel better.  It reinforces to us that we did the right thing.  We don't want to hear opinions or statements that may counter our decision or question what we did.  Sounds like a natural human tendency, which it is.  We just have to be aware and work through this tendency to be subconsciously biased.

I come across this quite frequently when I hear others attempting to solve some sort of mystery or scientific issue and interpret statements, discoveries, and facts to meet their preconceived notion as to the outcome.  In my long career are as law enforcement officer, detective and chief of police, I saw this frequently with young officers and detectives. Upon arriving at a crime scene, some would quickly draw a conclusion as to what may have occurred, then try to fit the facts, as they were revealed, to support that conclusion.  That way of working is nothing but trouble!  What they should have been doing, and later learned to do, was follow the facts in an unbiased manner to the logical and factually based solution.

What made me think of this recently was reading through some comments on some of the blogs I read as well as some You Tube videos I watched.  I read some commenters defending their camera brand relentlessly, as though it were perfect in every way and every other commenter's camera brand was far inferior.  Also, I was reading a group of comments on different manufacturer's memory cards.  A commenter asked what was the best memory card brand to buy.  One writer would write that he had no issues with his brand X memory card.  Another writer would make the statement "don't buy those."  He or she went on to write, "I had two brand X cards fail on me. I would never buy one of those. I buy only Y." Others would write that they had had issues with brand Y.  Of course, all of that anecdotal evidence is meaningless as we could find an unlimited number of people who have never had brand X card fail, had brand Y card fail, etc.  But this one particular writer continued to assert that only his brand was worthy of purchase and buying the other brand was a poor decision.  Don't pay attention to such drivel.  As it said, it is useless in knowing the actual data and failure rates.

I happened to watch a You Tube video of a comparison between a new Canon 5DsR and a Nikon D810.  In other videos by this same individual, I perceived a tendency to favor Canon cameras so when I heard him say something to the effect that looking at files at 200% or 300%, you could see a difference in image characteristics or one sort or another, I thought about confirmation bias.  He seems as though he would go to extremes to find some sort of difference to confirm his preference for Canon cameras.  200% or 300%?  Are you kidding me?

Confirmation bias is real.  We should try to recognize it in ourselves when logically working our way through a problem or when trying to make the best decision.  We must gather empirical and non-biased supported facts (and make sure they are indeed facts and not opinions in disguise) so as to draw a logical conclusion.  However, we must also be aware of it in others when we look for information to help us with our decision-making process. If we don't, we can easily  be taken in by others attempts to support their decisions which may run contrary to what's best for us.

For you older readers you will remember the TV show "Dragnet" (a Los Angeles based police show) in the 1950s and 1960s, when the lead character, Detective Joe Friday (played by Jack Webb) would say, "Just the facts, mam, just the facts," when someone would try to muddy the situation.  He was right then and that is right now when making good decisions.

Remember—opinions are just opinions.  They are neither right nor wrong, just opinions. Stick to empirical evidence.

Thanks for looking. Enjoy! 

Dennis A. Mook 

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